The Hay Wired Earthquake Scenario now Available online:
An October 2021 report from the USGS is now available for the public to peruse.
The New report from the USGS is worth a solid read.
Severl publications, include a report, a movie, and a fact sheet are now available on the USGS website. For most consumers the movie and fact sheet might be the most useful to review. The report, while very well written is fairly long and complex.
What is the Hay Wired Earthquake Scenario?
Led by the United States Geologic Survey, it considered the impact of a 7.0 earthquake along the Hayward fault line in the San Francisco Bay area of California. The fault located just east of the bay is one of the more famous faults in the US. The fault is considered active and runs through many urban areas.
“The HayWired scenario was developed to guide residents of the bay region and policymakers in earthquake-risk reduction and resilience-building actions”
In the “quake scenario “the earthquake is assumed to occur at 4:18 p.m. on April 18, 2018, the anniversary of the M 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake…” The theoretical “epicenter of the hypothetical M 7.0 mainshock of the HayWired scenario is set on the Hayward Fault beneath the east-bay city of Oakland”
What are the Findings from the Hayward Fault Scenario?
There are certainly too many findings to report on this website. But below are a very few of the highlights:
- “Estimates of casualties in the San Francisco Bay region include 800 deaths and 18,000 nonfatal injuries from building and structural damage caused by ground shaking and liquefaction hazards.
- The quake “could trigger widespread fires in the San Francisco Bay region. During and soon after the mainshock, more than 400 gas- and electric-related fires could ignite….”
- “Damage from the mainshock could displace about 77,000 households“
- “Even if all buildings in the bay region met current building code, 0.4 percent could collapse, 5 percent could be unsafe to occupy, and 19 percent could have restricted use“
Again, these are just a couple of items to point out, bot the report and flyer are way more complex than this. We encourage our readers to review it in detail.
Obviously the quantify of death and injuries is the most astounishing part. However given that this site deals with earthquake insurance, its hard to not also consider the damage to buildings and other infrastructure. The report also spends a bit of time reviewing the challenge of the water supply and supply mechanisms that could be damaged.
What does this Hayward Fault Scenario mean for Those that Own Homes?
This scenario, demonstrates, yet again that a signficant earthquake could destroy a lot of homes in California. If over 19 percent of these buildings were restricted, collapsed, etc that is a very very significant number to consider. If you own a home in California you shold be aware of this.
This Hay Wired report makes a great case for purchasing either a CEA or a standalone Earthquake Insurance policy. Earthquake insurance might not be as expensive as you might imagine.
How Can Earthquake Insurance Financially protect you from a “Hay Wired” Earthquake?
Please allow me to be clear a property insurance policy can not protect your safety, for the most part. It can also not really protect your house, but it can financially protect you.
The structural coverages: Coverage A and B can assist you with rebuilding your home.
The personal property Coverages can assist you in replacing some of your personal property items.
The Loss of use can provide money to stay in hotel rooms or rental during the period that you rebuild.
Yes earthquake insurance policies have large deductibles, but what is the earthquake deductible when you have no insurance?